How TKDbets predicts fights

TKDbets is a data-driven UFC and MMA prediction site. Every pick comes from a transparent statistical model, not opinion or hype.

The model

Each fighter is rated with Glicko-2, fitted from their real fight-by-fight history (opponents, results, finishes and layoffs). Those ratings drive a win probability that is then adjusted for the style matchup (striker vs grappler, finishing threat vs durability), physical edges (reach, age, stance) and recent form and fight-week news.

The odds & value

We pull real live odds, de-vig them with the Shin method to recover the market's true probabilities, and only flag a bet when the model's probability is genuinely higher than the price implies. Stakes are sized with fractional Kelly. The model is market-anchored, so it never promotes a sub-33% longshot as "value" on a sliver of edge.

Honesty

We show the model's confidence and the data behind every call, and we grade predictions against the closing line (CLV) rather than cherry-picked wins. When a fight has no real edge, we say so.

See the model in action on the fight analysis and live picks.