Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo
Prediction, Odds & Breakdown
Our model's prediction and a full tale-of-the-tape breakdown for Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi. The model makes Allan Nascimento a 60% favourite.
The prediction
Our model makes Allan Nascimento the more likely winner at 60%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, the style and physical matchup, and recent form.
Tale of the tape
| Allan Nascimento | Mitch Raposo | |
|---|---|---|
| 12-4 | Record | 10-3 |
| 69.0" | Reach | 64.5" |
| 34 | Age | 27 |
| 58% | Finish rate | 70% |
| Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu | Style | Mixed Martial Artist |
How the fight breaks down
Edge to Nascimento on style. 58% of his wins come early, and Raposo folds in 33% of the fights he loses.
Against balanceds, Nascimento is 12-4.
Step up test: against ranked opponents Nascimento is 1-4, Raposo is 0-2.
The betting pick
Our model has flagged a genuine value play on this fight. The exact value pick, KO/submission and round props, recommended stake and live dollar payouts are reserved for TKDbets Pro members.
Unlock the pick & oddsFrequently asked questions
When is Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo?
Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo takes place on Saturday, June 20, 2026 at 21:00 UTC, about 6 days from now. You can see the start time in your own timezone on the TKDbets fight schedule.
Who will win Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo?
Our model makes Allan Nascimento the more likely winner at about 60%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, style and physical matchups, and recent form.
What are the betting odds for Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo?
Allan Nascimento is the moneyline favourite at around -195. The full odds board, props and our exact value pick are available on TKDbets Pro.
Will Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo go the distance?
Probably not. Both fighters finish a high share of their wins, so a knockout or submission is more likely than a decision.
How can I bet on Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo?
We model every fight for value and publish the exact value pick, props and a recommended stake on TKDbets Pro. The free preview shows the matchup, the tale of the tape and our prediction.
See the live odds, payouts and full interactive breakdown on the TKDbets card page.