Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje
Prediction, Odds & Breakdown
Our model's prediction and a full tale-of-the-tape breakdown for Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje. The model makes Ilia Topuria a 83% favourite.
The prediction
Our model makes Ilia Topuria the more likely winner at 83%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, the style and physical matchup, and recent form.
Tale of the tape
| Ilia Topuria | Justin Gaethje | |
|---|---|---|
| 16-0 | Record | 11-5 |
| 69.0" | Reach | 70.0" |
| 29 | Age | 37 |
| 88% | Finish rate | 64% |
| Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu | Style | Striker |
How the fight breaks down
Styles favor Topuria. He finishes 88% of his wins, and Gaethje has been stopped in 100% of his losses. If this hits the mat it gets ugly fast.
Step up test: against ranked opponents Topuria is 3-0, Gaethje is 5-5.
The fight week news cuts against Topuria (camp, health or weight noise). Worth a look before you back him.
The betting pick
Our model has run the full value analysis on this fight. The exact value pick, KO/submission and round props, recommended stake and live dollar payouts are reserved for TKDbets Pro members.
Unlock the pick & oddsFrequently asked questions
Who will win Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje?
Our model makes Ilia Topuria the more likely winner at about 83%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, style and physical matchups, and recent form.
What are the betting odds for Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje?
Ilia Topuria is the moneyline favourite at around -461. The full odds board, props and our exact value pick are available on TKDbets Pro.
Will Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje go the distance?
Probably not. Both fighters finish a high share of their wins, so a knockout or submission is more likely than a decision.
How can I bet on Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje?
We model every fight for value and publish the exact value pick, props and a recommended stake on TKDbets Pro. The free preview shows the matchup, the tale of the tape and our prediction.
See the live odds, payouts and full interactive breakdown on the TKDbets card page.