Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis
Prediction, Odds & Breakdown
Our model's prediction and a full tale-of-the-tape breakdown for Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje. The model makes Josh Hokit a 84% favourite.
The prediction
Our model makes Josh Hokit the more likely winner at 84%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, the style and physical matchup, and recent form.
Tale of the tape
| Josh Hokit | Derrick Lewis | |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | Record | 8-8 |
| 73.5" | Reach | 79.0" |
| 28 | Age | 41 |
| 89% | Finish rate | 75% |
| – | Style | Striker |
How the fight breaks down
Edge to Hokit on style. 89% of his wins come early, and Lewis folds in 88% of the fights he loses.
Against balanceds, Lewis is 8-7.
Step up test: against ranked opponents Hokit is 0-0, Lewis is 0-7.
The fight week news cuts against Hokit (camp, health or weight noise). Worth a look before you back him.
The betting pick
Our model has flagged a genuine value play on this fight. The exact value pick, KO/submission and round props, recommended stake and live dollar payouts are reserved for TKDbets Pro members.
Unlock the pick & oddsFrequently asked questions
Who will win Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis?
Our model makes Josh Hokit the more likely winner at about 84%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, style and physical matchups, and recent form.
What are the betting odds for Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis?
Josh Hokit is the moneyline favourite at around -400. The full odds board, props and our exact value pick are available on TKDbets Pro.
Will Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis go the distance?
Probably not. Both fighters finish a high share of their wins, so a knockout or submission is more likely than a decision.
How can I bet on Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis?
We model every fight for value and publish the exact value pick, props and a recommended stake on TKDbets Pro. The free preview shows the matchup, the tale of the tape and our prediction.
See the live odds, payouts and full interactive breakdown on the TKDbets card page.