Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson
Prediction, Odds & Breakdown
Our model's prediction and a full tale-of-the-tape breakdown for Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres. The model makes Asu Almabayev a 80% favourite.
The prediction
Our model makes Asu Almabayev the more likely winner at 80%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, the style and physical matchup, and recent form.
Tale of the tape
| Asu Almabayev | Charles Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| 15-1 | Record | 10-6 |
| 65.0" | Reach | 70.0" |
| 32 | Age | 35 |
| 53% | Finish rate | 50% |
| Jiu-Jitsu | Style | Muay Thai |
How the fight breaks down
Johnson is the cleaner striker here (50% finish rate), but he has to stay off his back. Almabayev only needs one takedown to flip it.
Step up test: against ranked opponents Almabayev is 3-1, Johnson is 2-6.
The fight week news cuts against Johnson (camp, health or weight noise). Worth a look before you back him.
The betting pick
Our model has run the full value analysis on this fight. The exact value pick, KO/submission and round props, recommended stake and live dollar payouts are reserved for TKDbets Pro members.
Unlock the pick & oddsFrequently asked questions
When is Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson?
Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson takes place on Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 16:00 UTC, about 13 days from now. You can see the start time in your own timezone on the TKDbets fight schedule.
Who will win Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson?
Our model makes Asu Almabayev the more likely winner at about 80%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, style and physical matchups, and recent form.
What are the betting odds for Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson?
Asu Almabayev is the moneyline favourite at around -402. The full odds board, props and our exact value pick are available on TKDbets Pro.
Will Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson go the distance?
There is a real chance it does. Neither fighter finishes at an especially high rate, so a decision is firmly in play.
How can I bet on Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson?
We model every fight for value and publish the exact value pick, props and a recommended stake on TKDbets Pro. The free preview shows the matchup, the tale of the tape and our prediction.
See the live odds, payouts and full interactive breakdown on the TKDbets card page.