Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett
Prediction, Odds & Breakdown
Our model's prediction and a full tale-of-the-tape breakdown for Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2. The model makes Benoît Saint Denis a 82% favourite.
The prediction
Our model makes Benoît Saint Denis the more likely winner at 82%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, the style and physical matchup, and recent form.
Tale of the tape
| Benoît Saint Denis | Paddy Pimblett | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-1 |
| 100% | Finish rate | 100% |
How the fight breaks down
Step up test: against ranked opponents Denis is 1-0, Pimblett is 1-1.
The betting pick
Our model has run the full value analysis on this fight. The exact value pick, KO/submission and round props, recommended stake and live dollar payouts are reserved for TKDbets Pro members.
Unlock the pick & oddsFrequently asked questions
When is Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett?
Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett takes place on Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 01:00 UTC, about 27 days from now. You can see the start time in your own timezone on the TKDbets fight schedule.
Who will win Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett?
Our model makes Benoît Saint Denis the more likely winner at about 82%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, style and physical matchups, and recent form.
What are the betting odds for Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett?
Benoît Saint Denis is the moneyline favourite at around -461. The full odds board, props and our exact value pick are available on TKDbets Pro.
Will Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett go the distance?
Probably not. Both fighters finish a high share of their wins, so a knockout or submission is more likely than a decision.
How can I bet on Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett?
We model every fight for value and publish the exact value pick, props and a recommended stake on TKDbets Pro. The free preview shows the matchup, the tale of the tape and our prediction.
See the live odds, payouts and full interactive breakdown on the TKDbets card page.