Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins
Prediction, Odds & Breakdown
Our model's prediction and a full tale-of-the-tape breakdown for Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi. The model makes Bia Mesquita a 82% favourite.
The prediction
Our model makes Bia Mesquita the more likely winner at 82%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, the style and physical matchup, and recent form.
Tale of the tape
| Bia Mesquita | Melissa Mullins | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | Record | 7-2 |
| 67.5" | Reach | 68.0" |
| 35 | Age | 34 |
| 100% | Finish rate | 57% |
| - | Style | Mixed Martial Artist |
How the fight breaks down
Edge to Mesquita on style. 100% of his wins come early, and Mullins folds in 50% of the fights he loses.
Mesquita is 7-0 against balanceds. That style has never been his problem.
Against balanceds, Mullins is 7-2.
Step up test: against ranked opponents Mesquita is 0-0, Mullins is 1-2.
The betting pick
Our model has run the full value analysis on this fight. The exact value pick, KO/submission and round props, recommended stake and live dollar payouts are reserved for TKDbets Pro members.
Unlock the pick & oddsFrequently asked questions
When is Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins?
Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins takes place on Saturday, June 20, 2026 at 21:00 UTC, about 6 days from now. You can see the start time in your own timezone on the TKDbets fight schedule.
Who will win Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins?
Our model makes Bia Mesquita the more likely winner at about 82%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, style and physical matchups, and recent form.
What are the betting odds for Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins?
Bia Mesquita is the moneyline favourite at around -575. The full odds board, props and our exact value pick are available on TKDbets Pro.
Will Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins go the distance?
Probably not. Both fighters finish a high share of their wins, so a knockout or submission is more likely than a decision.
How can I bet on Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins?
We model every fight for value and publish the exact value pick, props and a recommended stake on TKDbets Pro. The free preview shows the matchup, the tale of the tape and our prediction.
See the live odds, payouts and full interactive breakdown on the TKDbets card page.