Daniil Donchenko vs Andreas Gustafsson
Prediction, Odds & Breakdown
Our model's prediction and a full tale-of-the-tape breakdown for Daniil Donchenko vs Andreas Gustafsson at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres. The model makes Daniil Donchenko a 69% favourite.
The prediction
Our model makes Daniil Donchenko the more likely winner at 69%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, the style and physical matchup, and recent form.
Tale of the tape
| Daniil Donchenko | Andreas Gustafsson | |
|---|---|---|
| 14-2 | Record | 12-3 |
| 71.0" | Reach | 73.5" |
| 24 | Age | 35 |
| 79% | Finish rate | 83% |
How the fight breaks down
Edge to Donchenko on style. 79% of his wins come early, and Gustafsson folds in 33% of the fights he loses.
Against balanceds, Donchenko is 14-2.
Against balanceds, Gustafsson is 12-3.
Step up test: against ranked opponents Donchenko is 1-2, Gustafsson is 0-3.
The betting pick
Our model has run the full value analysis on this fight. The exact value pick, KO/submission and round props, recommended stake and live dollar payouts are reserved for TKDbets Pro members.
Unlock the pick & oddsFrequently asked questions
When is Daniil Donchenko vs Andreas Gustafsson?
Daniil Donchenko vs Andreas Gustafsson takes place on Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 13:00 UTC, about 13 days from now. You can see the start time in your own timezone on the TKDbets fight schedule.
Who will win Daniil Donchenko vs Andreas Gustafsson?
Our model makes Daniil Donchenko the more likely winner at about 69%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, style and physical matchups, and recent form.
What are the betting odds for Daniil Donchenko vs Andreas Gustafsson?
Daniil Donchenko is the moneyline favourite at around -226. The full odds board, props and our exact value pick are available on TKDbets Pro.
Will Daniil Donchenko vs Andreas Gustafsson go the distance?
Probably not. Both fighters finish a high share of their wins, so a knockout or submission is more likely than a decision.
How can I bet on Daniil Donchenko vs Andreas Gustafsson?
We model every fight for value and publish the exact value pick, props and a recommended stake on TKDbets Pro. The free preview shows the matchup, the tale of the tape and our prediction.
See the live odds, payouts and full interactive breakdown on the TKDbets card page.