Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia
Prediction, Odds & Breakdown
Our model's prediction and a full tale-of-the-tape breakdown for Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje. The model makes Diego Lopes a 59% favourite.
The prediction
Our model makes Diego Lopes the more likely winner at 59%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, the style and physical matchup, and recent form.
Tale of the tape
| Diego Lopes | Steve Garcia | |
|---|---|---|
| 11-5 | Record | 12-4 |
| 72.5" | Reach | 75.0" |
| 31 | Age | 34 |
| 73% | Finish rate | 83% |
| Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu | Style | Striker |
How the fight breaks down
Styles favor Lopes. He finishes 73% of his wins, and Garcia has been stopped in 50% of his losses. If this hits the mat it gets ugly fast.
Step up test: against ranked opponents Lopes is 1-5, Garcia is 1-4.
The betting pick
Our model has flagged a genuine value play on this fight. The exact value pick, KO/submission and round props, recommended stake and live dollar payouts are reserved for TKDbets Pro members.
Unlock the pick & oddsFrequently asked questions
When is Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia?
Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia takes place on Monday, June 15, 2026 at 00:00 UTC, about 8 hours from now. You can see the start time in your own timezone on the TKDbets fight schedule.
Who will win Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia?
Our model makes Diego Lopes the more likely winner at about 59%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, style and physical matchups, and recent form.
What are the betting odds for Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia?
Diego Lopes is the moneyline favourite at around -147. The full odds board, props and our exact value pick are available on TKDbets Pro.
Will Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia go the distance?
Probably not. Both fighters finish a high share of their wins, so a knockout or submission is more likely than a decision.
How can I bet on Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia?
We model every fight for value and publish the exact value pick, props and a recommended stake on TKDbets Pro. The free preview shows the matchup, the tale of the tape and our prediction.
See the live odds, payouts and full interactive breakdown on the TKDbets card page.