Gaston Bolaños vs Michael Aswell
Prediction, Odds & Breakdown
Our model's prediction and a full tale-of-the-tape breakdown for Gaston Bolaños vs Michael Aswell at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi. The model makes Michael Aswell a 78% favourite.
The prediction
Our model makes Michael Aswell the more likely winner at 78%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, the style and physical matchup, and recent form.
Tale of the tape
| Gaston Bolaños | Michael Aswell | |
|---|---|---|
| 8-5 | Record | 11-4 |
| 69.0" | Reach | 69.0" |
| 33 | Age | 25 |
| 75% | Finish rate | 55% |
| Striker | Style | - |
How the fight breaks down
Edge to Aswell on style. 55% of his wins come early, and Bolaños folds in 80% of the fights he loses.
Against balanceds, Bolaños is 8-5.
Step up test: against ranked opponents Bolaños is 1-5, Aswell is 1-4.
The betting pick
Our model has run the full value analysis on this fight. The exact value pick, KO/submission and round props, recommended stake and live dollar payouts are reserved for TKDbets Pro members.
Unlock the pick & oddsFrequently asked questions
When is Gaston Bolaños vs Michael Aswell?
Gaston Bolaños vs Michael Aswell takes place on Saturday, June 20, 2026 at 21:00 UTC, about 6 days from now. You can see the start time in your own timezone on the TKDbets fight schedule.
Who will win Gaston Bolaños vs Michael Aswell?
Our model makes Michael Aswell the more likely winner at about 78%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, style and physical matchups, and recent form.
What are the betting odds for Gaston Bolaños vs Michael Aswell?
Michael Aswell is the moneyline favourite at around -365. The full odds board, props and our exact value pick are available on TKDbets Pro.
Will Gaston Bolaños vs Michael Aswell go the distance?
Probably not. Both fighters finish a high share of their wins, so a knockout or submission is more likely than a decision.
How can I bet on Gaston Bolaños vs Michael Aswell?
We model every fight for value and publish the exact value pick, props and a recommended stake on TKDbets Pro. The free preview shows the matchup, the tale of the tape and our prediction.
See the live odds, payouts and full interactive breakdown on the TKDbets card page.