Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III
Prediction, Odds & Breakdown
Our model's prediction and a full tale-of-the-tape breakdown for Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2. The model makes Luke Riley a 73% favourite.
The prediction
Our model makes Luke Riley the more likely winner at 73%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, the style and physical matchup, and recent form.
Tale of the tape
| Luke Riley | Kai Kamaka III | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0% | Finish rate | 0% |
How the fight breaks down
Step up test: against ranked opponents Riley is 1-0, III is 0-0.
The betting pick
Our model has run the full value analysis on this fight. The exact value pick, KO/submission and round props, recommended stake and live dollar payouts are reserved for TKDbets Pro members.
Unlock the pick & oddsFrequently asked questions
When is Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III?
Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III takes place on Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 21:00 UTC, about 27 days from now. You can see the start time in your own timezone on the TKDbets fight schedule.
Who will win Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III?
Our model makes Luke Riley the more likely winner at about 73%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, style and physical matchups, and recent form.
What are the betting odds for Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III?
Luke Riley is the moneyline favourite at around -274. The full odds board, props and our exact value pick are available on TKDbets Pro.
Will Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III go the distance?
There is a real chance it does. Neither fighter finishes at an especially high rate, so a decision is firmly in play.
How can I bet on Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III?
We model every fight for value and publish the exact value pick, props and a recommended stake on TKDbets Pro. The free preview shows the matchup, the tale of the tape and our prediction.
See the live odds, payouts and full interactive breakdown on the TKDbets card page.