Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Murtazali Magomedov
Prediction, Odds & Breakdown
Our model's prediction and a full tale-of-the-tape breakdown for Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Murtazali Magomedov at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi. The model makes Murtazali Magomedov a 78% favourite.
The prediction
Our model makes Murtazali Magomedov the more likely winner at 78%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, the style and physical matchup, and recent form.
Tale of the tape
| Melsik Baghdasaryan | Murtazali Magomedov | |
|---|---|---|
| 8-3 | Record | 10-0 |
| 70.0" | Reach | 70.5" |
| 34 | Age | 26 |
| 62% | Finish rate | 100% |
| Mixed Martial Artist | Style | - |
How the fight breaks down
Edge to Magomedov on style. 100% of his wins come early, and Baghdasaryan folds in 100% of the fights he loses.
Against balanceds, Baghdasaryan is 8-3.
Magomedov is 10-0 against balanceds. That style has never been his problem.
Step up test: against ranked opponents Baghdasaryan is 0-3, Magomedov is 0-0.
The betting pick
Our model has run the full value analysis on this fight. The exact value pick, KO/submission and round props, recommended stake and live dollar payouts are reserved for TKDbets Pro members.
Unlock the pick & oddsFrequently asked questions
When is Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Murtazali Magomedov?
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Murtazali Magomedov takes place on Sunday, June 21, 2026 at 00:00 UTC, about 6 days from now. You can see the start time in your own timezone on the TKDbets fight schedule.
Who will win Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Murtazali Magomedov?
Our model makes Murtazali Magomedov the more likely winner at about 78%, based on Glicko-2 ratings from real fight history, style and physical matchups, and recent form.
What are the betting odds for Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Murtazali Magomedov?
Murtazali Magomedov is the moneyline favourite at around -290. The full odds board, props and our exact value pick are available on TKDbets Pro.
Will Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Murtazali Magomedov go the distance?
Probably not. Both fighters finish a high share of their wins, so a knockout or submission is more likely than a decision.
How can I bet on Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Murtazali Magomedov?
We model every fight for value and publish the exact value pick, props and a recommended stake on TKDbets Pro. The free preview shows the matchup, the tale of the tape and our prediction.
See the live odds, payouts and full interactive breakdown on the TKDbets card page.